Half a Million Louisianans Voted Early. Somebody Tell the Campaigns the Election Already Started

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By Dakota Jones
Desk: Political & Government, Campaigns & Elections.

Intro

Louisiana’s early-voting period is over. The tally is in: 520,942 people voted before Election Day, a record for a midterm in the state.

That’s up from 377,428 in 2022. In other words, early voting climbed about 38%. Half a million people made a plan, got to a polling place or returned a ballot, and voted ahead of Nov. 3.

Meanwhile, national political heavyweights largely skipped Louisiana because it was considered safely Republican. So here’s the awkward part: voters showed up as if the election mattered. Campaigns will have to adjust to that.

A campaign sign encourages Louisiana residents to vote

What Happened

The Louisiana Secretary of State’s final tally shows 448,525 people voted in person early, while 72,417 voted by absentee or mail ballot. That brings the total to 520,942-143,514 more early votes than the 2022 midterm.

The party-registration breakdown offers another snapshot, though not a crystal ball. About 42% of early voters were registered Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 18% had no party affiliation, according to University of Florida Election Lab data cited by WVUE Fox 8. Democrats led Republicans by roughly 16,000 early votes, or about three percentage points. Registration does not tell us how anyone voted. It tells us how those voters are registered. That distinction matters.

No-party voters had the biggest growth compared with 2022: their early turnout was up 65%, WVUE reported. Meanwhile, in East Baton Rouge Parish, Black voter turnout rose 93% compared with the previous midterm, according to WAFB.

Julia Letlow and Jamie Davis campaign during Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race

The statewide marquee contest is the U.S. Senate race between Republican Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis. The early-vote totals have given the campaigns something to argue over, and plenty of work to do before Election Day.

State Republican Party Chair Derek Babcock said the party’s focus for the final stretch was getting Republicans and conservatives to the polls. Democratic Party Chair Randall Gaines said Democrats would put “direct action” into places where they see room to increase turnout, including East Baton Rouge.

The campaign noise is arriving, too. The Accountability Project, a PAC backing Letlow, aired the cycle’s first anti-Davis television attack ad on Oct. 28.

A student event promotes voting in Baton Rouge

What’s driving the turnout? Analysts have pointed to voters feeling the stakes, frustration over the Iran war, and high prices. Chelsey Napoleon, Orleans Parish Clerk of Court, said people were voting “because what is happening in our country is monumental.”

Dr. Robert Collins of Dillard University described a particular sense of urgency among Black voters. “When people feel under attack, that’s when they get more involved in the political process,” he said.

Collins also cautioned against treating a turnout surge as a forecast. Louisiana remains a red state, and he said Letlow is still the “prohibitive favorite.” But, he added, the race “could be closer than some people think.”

That is a measured assessment. It is also more nuanced than “the number went up, so we know who wins.”

Why It Matters

The lesson for campaigns is not that early votes predict the result. They don’t. The lesson is that a larger-than-usual share of voters has already acted, and campaign plans built around a sleepy electorate may need a serious rewrite.

Here are the signals worth watching:

  1. A 38% increase is significant. Louisiana is not a battleground state, but a record jump is still a message: voters are engaged. Campaigns elsewhere will be checking whether their assumptions about turnout still hold.

  2. The early-vote party gap is narrow. Democrats lead registered Republicans by about three points among early voters. But Republicans traditionally perform better on Election Day in Louisiana. The early tally cuts both ways; it does not settle the race.

  3. No-party growth deserves attention. A 65% increase in early voting among no-party voters is the sharpest change by registration group. Both parties are trying to reach those voters. Neither gets to assume they belong to its column.

  4. Local turnout can change the picture. East Baton Rouge’s 93% increase in Black voter turnout is a major local signal. It helps explain why Gaines is directing party resources there, and why statewide totals should not obscure what is happening parish by parish.

The strategic headache for campaigns is simple: early voting changes the Election Day math. If hundreds of thousands have already voted, those voters are no longer part of the pool campaigns are trying to turn out on Tuesday. The remaining electorate has a different shape. Campaigns need to know who has voted, who has not, and where additional outreach can still matter.

There’s another detail worth noting. LSU New Orleans analyst Ed Chervenak said major political figures, including President Trump, bypassed Louisiana in favor of other Southern states because they considered it safely Republican. A convenient assumption, right up until a record number of Louisianans voted early.

WAFB analyst Jim Engster said the momentum appears to run against Davis, but “sometimes people vote for change.” Both statements can be true: Davis has a difficult path, and a surge in participation can make the contest less predictable than a campaign might prefer.

Verdict

Turnout is the one poll that can’t be faked. It just posted a 38% gain over Louisiana’s 2022 early-vote total.

That doesn’t tell us who wins on Nov. 3. It does tell us that voters did not get the memo that they were supposed to stay home. Neither party can safely treat the early numbers as a victory lap, or ignore them as noise.

The campaigns called Louisiana safe. Half a million voters made the situation look less comfortable. Somebody should tell the campaigns the election already started.

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