Seven Races, One Caveat: The Final NYT/Siena Poll Has Democrats Ahead Everywhere and Sure of Almost Nothing
By Dakota Jones
Desk: Political & Government, Campaigns & Elections
Intro
Seven Senate battlegrounds. Seven Democratic leads. And, for most of those races, no statistically reliable separation between the candidates. Yes, really. Both things at once. Welcome to election eve.
The final New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters, released Sunday, November 1, puts Democrats ahead in every surveyed Senate contest. That is a striking snapshot with the midterm election one day away. It is not a set of results, a forecast of certainty, or permission to start measuring the drapes in the Senate chamber.
The key caveat is straightforward: only two Democratic leads fall outside the full margin of error. The other five contests are statistical ties. Polling can tell you where the race stood among surveyed likely voters. The ballot count tells you who won.
What Happened
The poll surveyed likely voters in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Democrats led in all seven, with margins ranging from one point in Iowa to 11 points in Michigan.
Graphic: Final Senate poll results
| State | Democratic candidate | Republican candidate | Other | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed 53% | Mike Rogers 42% | - | ±3.8 |
| Texas | James Talarico 50% | Ken Paxton 43% | - | ±3.4 |
| Maine | Troy Jackson 51% | Susan Collins 45% | - | ±4.7 |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown 49% | Jon Husted 44% | - | ±4.4 |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton 49% | Roger Marshall 44% | David Graham (Libertarian) 4% | ±4.4 |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola 48% | Dan Sullivan 46% | - | ±5.0 |
| Iowa | Josh Turek 48% | Ashley Hinson 47% | - | ±4.7 |
The fieldwork ran from October 23 through November 1. Sample sizes were 610 likely voters in Alaska, 705 in Iowa, 736 in Kansas, 714 in Maine, 1,011 in Michigan, 717 in Ohio and 1,215 in Texas. Michigan’s sample included interviews conducted Sunday.
Siena Research Institute Executive Director Don Levy said the poll showed Democratic leads of five points in Kansas and Ohio, six in Maine, seven in Texas and 11 in Michigan. He also made the part worth keeping in bold: with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible.
In practical terms, only El-Sayed’s Michigan lead and Talarico’s Texas lead are outside the full margin of error. The other five are statistical ties. A margin of error is not a force field around the final result. It is a measure of sampling uncertainty, which is statistician for "we asked a lot of people and even then, honestly, who knows." Five of seven races hanging inside that fog is not a wave forecast. It is a shrug with a byline.
Why It Matters
The results point to a potentially strong night for Democrats, but the uncertainty is doing plenty of work. Democrats need four seats to flip control of the Senate. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning a majority, which is a meaningful possibility, not a signed receipt.
The poll also found that every Democratic candidate led among independents. Talarico was up 30 points among independents, according to The Hill; Brown led by nine and Jackson by 11. Those numbers suggest a shared advantage with a group that could matter in competitive contests. They do not cancel out the margins of error or replace votes cast.
The political backdrop is not quiet. The Hill reported that Representative Haley Stevens, a Democrat from Michigan, reversed her endorsement of El-Sayed and backed Republican nominee Mike Rogers on Sunday. The report also pointed to President Trump’s approval ratings, cost-of-living concerns tied to the Iran war and the tariff war with Canada, and candidate quality as factors putting more Senate seats in play. The poll gives a last-minute measure of the environment; it does not isolate the effect of any single factor.
Governor’s races add to the broader picture. Democrats were up by eight points or more in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan. In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, 49% to 43%. Kansas and Texas were too close to call. Alaska’s governor race uses ranked-choice voting, so its process differs from a simple one-round contest.
Quick read: what to take from the poll
- Democrats lead all seven Senate races surveyed.
- Michigan and Texas are the only Democratic leads outside the full margin of error.
- The other five Senate races are statistical ties.
- A Democratic Senate majority is possible, but neither party’s majority is settled by this poll.
- Tomorrow’s vote count, not Sunday’s toplines, decides the races.
FAQ: Does “leading” mean a candidate is likely to win?
Not by itself. A lead is a snapshot of surveyed voters, not a result. The size of the lead, the poll’s margin of error and the actual turnout all matter.
FAQ: Why call five races statistical ties if Democrats are ahead?
Because those leads fall within the polls’ margins of error. The point estimates favor Democrats, but the poll does not establish a clear advantage in those five contests.
FAQ: Does a 62% chance mean Democrats will control the Senate?
No. It means Decision Desk HQ assigns that probability to a Democratic majority. There remains a substantial possibility of a different outcome.
Verdict
This final NYT/Siena poll offers Democrats a favorable headline and a substantial caveat. The party leads in all seven surveyed Senate battlegrounds, but only Michigan and Texas show leads outside the full margin of error. In the other five, the race remains statistically unsettled.
That is the useful distinction between a polling story and an election result. One describes what a survey found. The other comes from the ballots.
For now, take the poll seriously, read the fine print, and resist the urge to treat a lead as a victory lap. The only poll that counts is tomorrow’s vote.
Sources
- Siena Research Institute, “NYTimes/Siena Poll of Likely Voters – Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas,” November 1, 2026: https://sri.siena.edu/2026/11/01/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-alaska-iowa-kansas-maine-michigan-ohio-and-texas/
- The Hill, “Democrats edge out Republicans in 7 heated Senate races: NYT polls,” November 1, 2026: https://thehill.com/homenews/6187749-democrats-edge-out-gop-senate-poll/