Three Million Dead From Heat, and the Arsonists Still Get a $6.2 Trillion Allowance

By Dakota Jones
Desk: Science, Health & Environment, Health & Medicine
Published: October 30, 2026

The 2026 Report of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change has delivered a grim first: a direct estimate of heat deaths attributable to human-caused climate change. The number, for 2016 through 2023, is nearly 3 million.

And while the body count comes with decimal points, governments are still extending fossil fuels a $6.20 trillion cumulative net subsidy allowance since the Paris Agreement. The arsonist is being paid by the hour while the fire department holds a bake sale.

This is the Countdown’s 10th annual edition, published in The Lancet on October 28, ahead of COP31 in Turkey. Led by University College London in collaboration with the World Health Organization, it draws on 146 researchers from more than 100 institutions in more than 30 countries and tracks 54 indicators. Its authors are calling for climate change to be declared a global health emergency.

Here is what you need to know, and why this is not just a weather story.

Heat is already a deadly health risk

The report estimates that heat was linked to an average of 540,800 deaths per year between 2016 and 2023. Of those, 68%, or 369,900 a year, were caused by climate change. In 2006–2015, the climate-attributable share was 55%, or 219,100 deaths per year.

In 2023, the hottest year in the report’s window, heat was linked to a record 710,000 estimated deaths. That was more than deaths from malaria or HIV. The report estimates climate change drove 71.5% of them.

One important distinction: 710,000 is the estimated number of deaths linked to heat in 2023. The nearly 3 million figure is the estimated number of heat deaths attributable to human-caused climate change across 2016–2023. Those are related figures, not interchangeable headlines.

“The health harms of climate change are growing faster than the world's response to them, and in many cases even accelerating,” said Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown at UCL.

The costs go well beyond the emergency room

If the mortality figures feel abstract, the lost work hours are not. In 2025, heat exposure cost the world 573 billion potential work hours and an estimated $1.07 trillion in potential income losses, equal to 0.91% of global economic output. It was the third straight year losses topped $1 trillion.

Region or sector	Reported impact
Southeast Asia	Losses equal to 3.9% of GDP
Africa	Losses equal to 3.2% of GDP
Europe	Losses equal to 0.2% of GDP
Americas	Losses equal to 1.5% of GDP
Agriculture	38% of global heat-related income losses
Construction	29% of global heat-related income losses

In Africa, agriculture accounts for 71% of heat-related income losses. That is what climate risk looks like when people’s work depends on being outdoors and the temperature makes work more dangerous.

The ground is sending its own warnings. In 2025, 51.8% of the world’s land experienced extreme drought for at least a month, the second-worst year on record after 2023. Since 2016, the drought-affected area has grown more than 700% faster than it did in 2006–2015.

At the same time, very extreme rainfall affected almost 17.2% of global land per year in 2016–2025, up from 14.8% in the previous decade. Satellite analysis since 2003 found 43% of the world’s land got drier and 37% got wetter, with hydrological extremes affecting more than 80% of land. Drier here, wetter there. Stability remains elusive.

The subsidy math is difficult to defend

Fossil fuels still supply more than 80% of global energy. Energy-related emissions hit a record high in 2024, and fossil fuel air pollution is estimated to kill 2.73 million people a year.

Meanwhile, the world’s 100 largest oil and gas companies plan to produce 150% more fossil fuels by 2040 than is compatible with the 1.5°C limit. That projection was 138% last year. Progress, apparently, has many definitions.

The report says global net fossil fuel subsidies have doubled since 2016, reaching a cumulative $6.20 trillion since the Paris Agreement. Ten countries spent more on fossil fuel subsidies in 2024 than on their own health systems.

The authors also call out “vested interests”: fossil fuel lobbying and disinformation, alongside political allies. They single out the USA for promoting fossil fuel expansion and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. That is not a vague warning about bad incentives. It is a direct account of how political choices can keep the risks rising.

Progress exists. It just needs a bigger microphone.

The report does give credit where it is due. Global clean energy investment grew 7.2% in 2025 to a record $2.1 trillion, 82% more than the $1.16 trillion invested in fossil fuels. Renewable electricity’s share of total generation rose from 5.5% in 2016 to 13.5% in 2023.

In at least 77 countries where fossil fuel air pollution has fallen since 2016, cleaner air is preventing an estimated 323,000 deaths a year. And 56 of 194 WHO member states now have national health adaptation plans, up from 14 in 2015.

But adaptation funding is still far short of need. Developing countries’ minimum quantified health adaptation requirement is $3.3 billion a year. Only about a third, $1.1 billion, was committed in 2024.

Climate-health research funding rose 655% from 2016 to 2024, from $42 million to $316 million. That is a sharp increase, with a sharp caveat: 84% still goes to researchers in the world’s wealthiest countries.

What should you take from this?

For communities, this report is a case for treating heat preparedness, worker protection and health-system adaptation as practical necessities. For decision-makers, it is a ledger of costs and choices: rising exposure on one side, subsidies and underfunded adaptation on the other.

That is also why journalism matters. Numbers this consequential need careful verification, plain-language explanation and distribution where people can find them. LD3 Productions describes its news and production services as part of a trust-first, multi-platform approach. The standard should be simple: show the evidence, make the figures understandable, and do not bury the consequences.

FAQ

Does the report say climate change caused all heat deaths?
No. It estimates that 68% of heat-linked deaths in 2016–2023 were caused by climate change.

Is $6.20 trillion an annual subsidy?
No. It is the cumulative net fossil fuel subsidy total since the Paris Agreement. The report says the global figure doubled since 2016.

What are the authors asking governments to do?
They formally call for climate change to be declared a global health emergency and urge a health-centered response.

Final Thoughts

Helen Clark, former New Zealand prime minister and chair of the Lancet Countdown board, put the obstacle plainly: “What's missing is not evidence, but the political will to act on it.” Co-chair Anthony Costello says health-centered climate action works. The report’s figures show why waiting carries a cost.

Nearly 3 million climate-attributable heat deaths. Trillions in cumulative fossil fuel subsidies. A fraction of needed adaptation funding committed. These are not competing narratives. They are the same policy ledger.

Punchy verdict: The evidence is in. Stop subsidizing the fire and start funding the response.

Sources

1. The Lancet / Phys.org (Lancet press release): "Climate health harms outpace action, prompting calls for global health emergency", https://phys.org/news/2026-10-climate-health-outpace-action-prompting.html
2. ABC News: "Global Lancet study counts almost 3 million climate change-related deaths", https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-28/lancet-study-counts-three-million-climate-change-related-deaths/107315006